Who is going to form the country’s new government?
1 in 2 chances for NDA majority
An innovative probability analysis of India Today’s Political Stock Exchange (PSE) suggests Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands one in two chances of leading the NDA back to power again.
The study was based on data aggregated from Axis-My-India’s PSE trackers over the past six months.
Rajeeva Karandikar, a reputed statistician and director of the Chennai Mathematical Institute, examined the expansive material to extrapolate who could lead the next government in May 2019.
Karandikar estimated that the NDA retains a 50 per cent chance to secure a majority in the new Lok Sabha.
3/4 Chance of 250+
And the probability of the BJP-led coalition crossing the 250-mark in the 543-seat Lok Sabha is almost three-fourths, the analysis revealed.
The chance of the NDA staying below 220 is nine per cent, Karandikar’s study showed.
“Those who are saying Narendra Modi is their choice, they are not going to vote for the Congress. And those who are going to say Rahul Gandhi is their choice, they are not going to vote for the BJP,” the statistician said, explaining the methodology he used in his analysis.
Voters in states holding a direct contest between the two main national parties are most likely to cast vote in favour of their preferred PM face and not the candidates, he explained.
In states where regional players — and not the BJP or the Congress — call the shots, voting preference for the candidates on the one hand and for the choice of the Prime Minister on the other may vary, he said.
“Looking at the numbers, the NDA is quite a bit ahead of the UPA,” remarked Neelanjan Sircar, a political scientist.
But the challenge, Sircar cautioned, lay in determining whether a leader’s popularity could actually translate into votes for his candidates on the ground.
The probability analysis also extrapolated the chances of the Mahagathbandhan coming to power.
Numbers for the Samajwadi Party, the BSP, the RLD, the TMC, the Aam Aadmi Party, the TDP, the Left and independents were added to the UPA’s for an assessment.
16% for Mahagathbandhan majority
The report showed the Mahagathbandhan stands a 16 per cent chance of getting a majority.
And the chance of this grand opposition alliance crossing the 250-mark was 34 per cent, the analysis suggested.
“The moment the NDA drops below the majority, somebody is going to get the vote-share,” Sircar noted.
With the ruling coalition projected for a 50 per cent chance to retain power, the Mahagathbandhan could then well be “a serious player”, he said.